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In France inflation rose in November, reaching its highest level since 2008, and this increase is expected to continue in the coming months, which may impact household consumption. The rise in inflation was due to an acceleration in energy and manufactured goods prices, but also in se...
In France, the business climate improved to 114, exceeding its already high level in June and remaining well above its long-term average. However, this is mainly due to the service sector, which is a major risk given the evolution of the pandemic. Surveys indicate that price press...
The preliminary flash estimate of France’s real GDP in the third quarter is a strong quarter-to-quarter 3% advance, considerably above the 2.2% advance for the euro area and the 1.8% gain for Germany. The pandemic continues to be a downside risk for the French economy, particul...
The headline IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI® fell for a third successive month in October, according to the 'flash' reading, dropping from 56.2 in September to 54.3. By sector, services outperformed manufacturing output for a second month running, the factory sector having now...
The Fed appears like a beacon of stability compared with other central banks. It has set a clear timeline for its tightening. As long as the market believes that timeline, rates should continue to converge higher. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, but this will not necess...
Describing evolving inflationary conditions as stagflation misses the point about today’s inflationary conditions. But in measuring stagnating production, politicians and economists alike are being misled by estimates of individual productivity by the OECD, which produces the b...
The global recovery continues but momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Compared to our July forecast, the global growth projection for 2021 has been revised down marginally to 5.9 percent and is unchanged for 2022 at 4.9 percent. The dangerous divergence in economic pro...
The Eurozone’s economy as measured by GDP expanded by 2% q/q in the second quarter, significantly faster than expected, indeed faster than the economies of the US and China. The most important driver of the Flash Composite PMI for July was the Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activi...
We think inflation is likely to fall back, but we are more sensitive to upside risk than at the start of the year. Evidence of longer-term investment in more and more sectors continues to build. Flexibility and a tactical approach across the full range of credit markets has been a...
Record low real yields across the world betray an exceptional degree of macro angst. Or do they? Don’t look at rates in isolation. Other markets are fine. The tide of central bank purchases lifts all boats, and normal liquidity conditions will only return at the end of the ...