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We like emerging market (EM) local debt within an overall bond underweight. Much monetary tightening has been done, and valuations are compelling. U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs last week, and equities fell. We still think stocks can weather the yield rise in the inflat...
Historically, a recession followed when 50% or more of the tracked yield curves became inverted. Every time. Interestingly, many of the data points suggesting the “economy is booming” are lagging indicators subject to significant negative revisions in the future. Eve...
The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
The market is pricing in 50 bps rate hike at the next two meetings. This is a bit quicker than it would like and indicates that the Fed, who thought inflation was transitory, is now behind the curve and more likely to spin the economy into a hard landing. The higher that stocks go, th...
We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle. In the near term, we expect the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) to continue to recover from its March trough. We expect the dis...
Inflation, by any measure, has been building momentum dating back to mid-2020. In the US, overall consumer inflation reached 8.5% in March, with food inflation at 8.8%. Economic theory suggests that building inflation expectations makes inflation more challenging to tame. This appears...
When reviewing the current state of the global economy and investment markets, we recommend focusing on market signals and weeding out market noise. While decelerating from the pace of 2021, U.S. economic growth is expected to remain positive in 2022, pending further unexpected inflat...
The "World Economic Outlook" report released by the IMF on April 19th depicted a worsening in the global economic scenario for 2022: lower economic growth and higher inflation. Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks, but the impacts of those comm...
Based on past patterns, reported earnings growth is likely to be modestly higher than that. We think the biggest risk is from the impact of aggressive monetary policy response to contain inflation. The economy is still growing, consumers are still spending, and many businesses are...
We have a healthy labor market, and it’s hard to have a recession when the labor market is on fire. If you go back to 1970, there’s been the same number of examples where an oil price spike year-over-year of 60% occurred that led to a recession, and the same number of ex...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...