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With long-term U.S. rates near 3% and short-term rates soon to rise to near 1%, the U.S. dollar will stay stronger than the euro, whose official rate remains near zero, so the world will keep buying U.S. dollars. This week, we get the official first estimate of first-quarter GDP. Than...
A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake. The Federal Reserve has only just begun its rate hiking campaign to tighten monetary policy. The current surge in bond yields has taken the 10-year yields to extreme overbought l...
As the budget deficit shrinks, more U.S. Treasury issued debt is finding its way onto the market, possibly putting upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Higher inflation and the Fed’s decision to begin raising short-term interest rates are major contributing factors to ...
Once we hit a 0% US real yield, we adopted a "turning point watch" position. We don't think we've seen it yet, primarily as inflation expectations continue to trend higher. Containment of these is crucial, else we move into an explosive state where we trek in the direction of 4%. ...
Higher (forward-looking) implied volatility suggests rates have moved to a durably higher regime. This means investors’ risk appetite will remain soft for the time being, and central banks should refrain from active asset sales. Fears of more lockdowns in China are bringing...
With U.S. bond market yields rising to levels not seen since 2018–19, market participants appear to be debating whether rates have further room to rise from here or whether the increases now represent a renewed buying opportunity to go long duration. The rise in UST yields thus...
Do temporary supply disturbances explain the high inflation we have experienced over the last year? But supply disturbances play a bit part in the overall inflation story. Unlike supply disturbances, faster nominal spending drives up both prices and real output, which is what we a...
A fall of 20% from a former peak is called a bear market, a decline of 10% is labeled a correction, and a smaller decline is called a market phase. Today, the three popular US stock market indices can each be labeled with a different name. No wonder there is confusion concerning the c...
Only one major asset was up last week: REITs. There were some negative developments that might explain the selling. With the drop in commodities and fears about the impact of the China slowdown, the immediate effect should be for inflation and growth expectations to moderate. We didn&...
We like emerging market (EM) local debt within an overall bond underweight. Much monetary tightening has been done, and valuations are compelling. U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs last week, and equities fell. We still think stocks can weather the yield rise in the inflat...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...