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With the Federal Reserve embarking on an interest rate hiking cycle to counteract realized inflation, there’re concerns about consumers - particularly those with lower incomes. The Fed characterizes incomes differently, but the data shows that consumer balance sheets coming out...
The dollar matters for the larger-cap brethren within the stock market. No one believes the US economy is contracting with the JOLTS survey showing 12 million jobs available and only 6 million unemployed. Financial sector stocks performed horribly in April and especially after Q1 ...
Expects the bond market volatility to come off the boil a little bit or even better, see a rally in yields. There's a lot already priced into the bond market with respect to central bank interest rate hikes. Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation and Derivatives, TD Asset Managem...
Our fund hasn’t performed well over the past 8 months. The disconnect between fundamental business performance and stock price performance has been persistently frustrating over the last few months. Even though we believe the market is attractively priced at a macro level, ...
I expect S&P 500 total returns to be negative, on average, for well over a decade – an outcome I also projected at the 2000 market peak. The most severe market losses tend to emerge when elevated valuations are joined by deterioration and divergence in market internals, sug...
By reducing the costs and risks of inflation, a good monetary rule increases productivity and, hence, promotes long-run economic growth. An average inflation target also works reasonably well in response to temporary real supply shocks. Inflation has surged over the last year and, des...
The Fed has little control over today’s goods inflation, driven by supply-chain, COVID stimulus, and war. Every time the Fed has increased rates to fight inflation historically, unemployment has increased. Recent events have put an even greater spotlight on energy independe...
Analyst consensus estimates now put the net income of S&P 500 companies as a whole at 4.3% year-on-year growth in Q1. But with inflation running at a 7.9% pace, that means that in real terms, earnings growth is now negative. Strip out the effect of the spike in the energy sector's...
Stepping back to look at the long-term trend in CPI's growth rate is key to any inflation analysis. The current move in rates appears to have more to do with inflation than growth. The US 10-year yield would need to rise to near 4.5% to align with future inflation pace. For ...
With long-term U.S. rates near 3% and short-term rates soon to rise to near 1%, the U.S. dollar will stay stronger than the euro, whose official rate remains near zero, so the world will keep buying U.S. dollars. This week, we get the official first estimate of first-quarter GDP. Than...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...