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Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief that the FOMC raised its target federal funds rate range by only 50 basis points, to 0.75%–1.0%, instead of the 75 basis points that some had feared. The Dow Jones surged 932 points after the meeting, the largest increase since 2020. The...
This report seeks to provide macro-level data and insights across several income-oriented asset classes and strategies. The Fed was forced to play catch up after leaving loose monetary policies in place, despite inflationary pressures spreading across the global economy. Volatilit...
The US 10yr real yield finally broke decisively into positive territory. The move looks and feels like a confident one. For now, the firming path is correlating with tighter financial conditions. The bulk of this so far has come from higher market rates feeding into wider retail and w...
Given the wide gap between current inflation and the current policy rate, the current profile still points to an extended run of relatively sharp and rapid hikes in the months ahead. The persistently strong demand for workers, combined with a labor shortage, is keeping unemployment un...
The Fed’s favored U.S. inflation measure exceeded 5% in the first quarter, and Fed officials continue to see risks to the upside. We agree that the Fed will have to navigate nimbly in the coming months as it tries to tame high inflation without breaking the U.S. economy. Th...
While the stated hikes were the first major increase since 2000, it was an apt response to the inflationary pressures. More than that, it gave some degree of conviction to the markets. In the bond markets, yields fell, as they had overpaced the Fed’s new plan. The other par...
The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. The goal seems to be to push rates to 2.5% by the end of the year. This is also not particularly tight in light of 8.5% inflation. At $95 billion per month, ...
The 10-year vs. two-year US Treasury yield curve momentarily inverted, and many are worried about the negative signals this may send for risk assets and the economy at large. Under normal conditions, the yield-curve trends upward as duration increases; longer-term bonds offer more yie...
As I said last February, Fed tightening is not a near-term threat. M2 is now about $4.8 trillion larger than it would have been with a continuation of 6% annual growth. Outright sales of securities, when they do occur, won't be large and should be easily digested by the bond marke...
The Fed has hiked 50bp and is formally starting quantitative tightening as it seeks to get a grip on inflation. The Fed acknowledges that "ongoing increases" will be required with Chair Jay Powell giving the green light to a series of 50bp+ rate hikes. We look for a 3.25% peak giv...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...