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Higher rates should drive markets lower, and our view is that the market is pricing rates at half of what they should be. Earnings could become affected by substantially higher interest expense, and companies with large investment burdens might be less attractive in the coming years. ...
Tightening financial conditions could mean markets see less of a need to hike rates. It is still early days, and previous signs of worsening economic outlooks were met with a shrug by rates markets. Supply is also clouding the picture, but further curve bull-steepening would be a ...
We slightly reduce risk on a worsening macro outlook. We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets. The Fed raised rates by 0.5% last week - the largest increase since 2000 - and signaled similar rises ahead. Long-term yields shot up a...
There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points. A rising currency is presumably negative for the export sector and positive for domestic purchasing power. On a sector basis, there were several winners last week wit...
To avoid losses and participate in “bull markets”, one needs to expect some losses. However, the key is to not lose too much capital, so gains are multiplied. The strategy I use builds up reserves when the prices of what my clients and I own are high compared to perceive...
Recent money printing exceeds 2.5 times the combined costs of our recent wars. It’s ginormous. Compounding the money printing problem, US debt cannot be paid, not even in inflated dollars. Serious inflation is inevitable that will crash stock and bond markets, in addition t...
The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. Consumer expectations of inflation reached 5.40% in March 2022, hitting levels not seen since the early 1980s. The inflation genie is out of the bottle, a...
The week ahead is important because it may be the first signs that may be peak inflation is at hand. With the current account report, Japan also reports portfolio capital flows. The MOF publishes weekly figures, but the monthly figures include a country breakdown. China's trade ba...
Since 2008, a key component of Fed policy has been to buy up mortgage-based securities and government debt so as to both prop up asset prices and increase the money supply. Now, after more than a decade of immense growth in the balance sheet, the Fed says that it will start reducing i...
Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief that the FOMC raised its target federal funds rate range by only 50 basis points, to 0.75%–1.0%, instead of the 75 basis points that some had feared. The Dow Jones surged 932 points after the meeting, the largest increase since 2020. The...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...