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We're seeing declining asset prices from bond to equities, and in some cases, real assets because of higher inflation. We are seeing early signs that inflation is starting to moderate. Equity market is currently pricing in the probability of a mild recession. For further det...
Stolen, plundered, looted, and the list goes on. It is what has happened to our portfolios since the beginning of the year. Bonds, equities, you name it. While the Fed’s policies may well help our rate of inflation, now at 9.75%, averaging the PPI and the CPI, I do not see high...
We haven’t even started to see real house price declines or other real asset price declines from refinancing hurdles. The big story in crypto this week is the collapse of Terra, the third biggest stable coin. All stable coins are forms of a currency peg. Here’s an al...
The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon. We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). Given t...
Just when we thought the world economy was regaining its footing, a military conflict in Europe has led us to reconsider our outlook for growth and inflation. In light of Russia’s invasion, we developed a framework for thinking about the economic impact of the conflict on the e...
With 10 basis points left to make bond market history, the 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday a tad over 3.142%. In the past 40 years, no Fed rate hiking cycle saw the 10-year rate exceed the high from the prior Fed rate-hiking cycle. While inflation is not as bad as it was i...
Sentiment on the part of small businesses held firm in April instead of the further decline that was expected. The headline index came in unchanged at 93.2, versus estimates of a 0.3-point decline to 92.9. The percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their firm’s bi...
Predictions a few weeks ago of peak gasoline prices have been obviated by the inflationary mindset. Gasoline futures have been breath-takingly volatile since February, with huge spikes and drops, that led to a new record on Friday, but on Monday, they fell from that record. Gap be...
US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers, and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distan...
Higher rates should drive markets lower, and our view is that the market is pricing rates at half of what they should be. Earnings could become affected by substantially higher interest expense, and companies with large investment burdens might be less attractive in the coming years. ...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...