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IEI News and Press, iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
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Many investors swear by cycles. Unfortunately, there is little to link these supposed cycles to economic theory, other than the link between the business cycle and the cycle of bank credit. The belief in monetary and fiscal stimulation wrongly assumes, among other things, that there a...
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Economic growth has probably rebounded from the first quarter’s contraction, based on GDP. Beyond these basic facts, the outlook turns murky. In the realm of high-confidence forecasts, ETI and EMI projections through June, while lower, still indicate a moderate level of growth....
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In the US, we may have seen the peak of overall inflation, with the annualized CPI rate increasing at 8.3% in April, down from 8.5% in March. One particular item has gotten recently in the US, baby formula, a peculiarly egregious shortage. It is the food situation that is the most...
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TLT's technical chart is pointing to a clear bear market. Don't make the mistake of thinking that bond prices will automatically rise if yields fall. Inflation remains the number 1 enemy of bondholders. For further details see: TLT: Bondholders Are Running Out Of Options...
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Latest 12 months wholesale price inflation ran 11%. Walmart and Target have big 2Q earnings misses. Oops! Retail demand does not seem to be the problem. In a market where computers and ETFs have no discernment, everything goes on sale. Retail may be uniquely advantaged when it...
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Wednesday’s sharp drop in the S&P 500 Index left the U.S. equity benchmark within a hair’s breadth of a bear market. Over the last century in the US, these episodes - defined as a stock market decline of at least 20% - have been relatively brief, lasting on average l...
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The fact that T-bill rates have been so low to begin with, the 4-week so far down under RRP and IOER, and then going lower, the problem of tight collateral supply and redistribution has itself become the baseline case. What management for Target and Walmart, the two largest retailers,...
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There is no shortage of reasons for inflation’s push higher this year – commodity shortages due to the war in Ukraine, continued demand for housing amidst strong fundamentals, and low inventory and fresh lockdowns in China creating new waves of supply chain issues. Reces...
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BHK is a fixed income CEF focused on Treasuries and investment grade bonds. Since our Sell rating, the fund has lost more than 10% on a price basis. With rates close to peaking, we feel the easy money has been already made in shorting BHK. This article covers CEFs from our sui...
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The primary concern for the public is by far inflation, not recession risk, and not the risk of a bear market in stocks given news headlines as a gauge of importance. The prior tightening seen in financial markets (10-yr UST yield jump) will likely weigh on future growth as measured b...
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