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China’s first activity survey for Q3 was disappointing. The weaker consumer sentiment due to the ongoing uncertainty in the housing market is another likely reason. The latest batch of activity surveys in DM (developed markets) was generally weaker than expected. ...
Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. As advanced economies raise interest rates to fight inflation, financial ...
Stocks in emerging markets have behaved surprisingly well this year. Even though they declined along with global equities, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperformed the MSCI World Index of developed-market stocks in the first half of 2022. Uncertainty and volatility aren’t g...
Is a Fed neutral interest rate enough to pause further hikes? How is Europe coping with its natural gas shortage? China lifts tech restrictions and supports property developers. On this week's Market Week in Review episode, Research Analyst Emily Zhao interviews Investme...
Last week was action-packed and it’s not likely to ease up with attention now shifting from the Fed and the “technical recession” in the US to the labour market. Various officials have highlighted the strength of the labour market when explaining why the US isn...
Rather than making money harder to get, the U.S. government needs to focus on the other side of the demand vs. supply equation. The Fed’s prescription is to suppress demand (borrowing and spending) by raising interest rates. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve tackled inflat...
In June 2022, 2.37 million light vehicles were sold in Greater China, a 29.7% increase compared with the same month of 2021. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, light vehicle sales in mainland China decreased 4.7%, from 11.55 million units to 11.01 million units. In the first half of 2...
China's construction sector faces ongoing pressure from policies designed to deleverage property developers and lead to more sustainable construction activity. Infrastructure spending may help to soften the blow but is unlikely to fully offset the impact on growth. Funding for rea...
In all fairness to the Atlanta Fed, some of last week’s statistical releases indicate an economic slowdown, but at a very slow pace, nothing like the rapid contraction that accompanied serious contractions in 2008-9 or 2020. Russia’s Gazprom last week notified major cust...
As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. In response to persistently high inflation and an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations, central banks are accelerati...