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Beginning with what is perhaps the best indicator of growth potential in the real economy, as opposed to just the financial economy, the G3 credit impulse is now firmly in negative territory after peaking in the latter stages of 2020. Turning to manufacturing, building permits for new...
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are sometimes punted as an alternative to direct investments on metals exchanges, like the LME or CME. But as a recent article in the Financial Times suggests, ETF investors are facing a similar question to trade or hedge fund speculators in estimating ...
To date, 2021 has been as almost good as it gets for equity investors. Any slowdown in growth has yet to feed into consensus earnings forecasts which have continued to increase over the summer. Investors have few high-yielding alternatives for as long as real and nominal bond yiel...
Following the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented stimulus response, supply bottlenecks and a rebound in demand have been a feature of 2021. We observe that a diversified portfolio approach has had the highest correlation to upside inflation and the leas...
After the pandemic’s initial spending splurge, the bill is due, and global growth is mean-reverting again. Treasury yields are confirming the disinflationary ride as we thought that they should. Similar trends are unfolding in the great hot north, with Canadian government b...
My reading of the current environment is relatively clear; both the longer term and shorter-term leading growth indicators are pointing toward the heightened possibility of slowing cyclical growth. As a result, these downward trends suggest investors ought to be rotating out of the re...
2 things that always happen at or prior to the start of a boom-to-bust transition for the US economy. One is a clear-cut widening of credit spreads. The other is pronounced weakness in the Industrial Metals Index (GYX) relative to the gold price. There are many different credit-spread...
Prices for metals have soared despite the uncertainties wrought by the pandemic. Metal prices rose sharply over the past year, with copper and steel up 50%, and iron ore appreciating 115% through June. China's ongoing structural reforms have laid a foundation for the recovery and ...
Rising sea levels, extreme weather, lack of rainfall will have an impact on both mining, metals refining and manufacturing operations. Automotive, aircraft, shipping and, most of all, productive industries like steel, aluminum, zinc and thermal power generation will go through enormou...
One of the most useful intermediate-term indicators of the financial/economic landscape is the performance of industrial metals relative to gold as indicated by the GYX/gold ratio. There are signs in the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets that a shift away from risk is unde...