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The economic implications of Russia’s war are potentially large and global. Domestic Chinese spending will be hit, owing to higher petrol and food prices that dampen consumption. Russia and Ukraine account for 14% of global wheat production and 30% of global wheat exports. ...
Within the metals and mining industry, both the operations and products at each point on the value chain are typically carbon intensive. Alcoa and Rio Tinto have formed a joint venture, ELYSIS, to focus on creating a new process for smelting aluminum that would completely eliminate th...
The epic squeeze in the nickel market has seen other base metals caught in the slipstream amid a margin crunch and broader risk-off sentiment. LME aluminium 3M contract prices hit a record US$4,073/tonne on March 7, and were hovering around US$3,400/tonne on Monday. Meanwhile, alu...
Due to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Russian Federation is facing tremendous multi-level sanctions. In the short and medium term we expect Russian exports and imports to significantly decrease, the fall however will differ depending on the industry and transport mode. In the ...
Buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat gained more than 40% last week. Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Giv...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook. The global economy was on track for strongly above-trend growth in 2022. The war in Ukraine will likely have a negative impact on growth and cause higher inflation this year, with Europe tak...
We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...
War in Ukraine has fanned the flames of the metals market which was already stretched. There is still significant uncertainty and confusion around the various sanctions on Russia. If there is no quick de-escalation, upside risks will dominate especially for those with larger expos...
While nominal asset classes such as equities and fixed income have had a negative response to inflation surprises, real assets such as commodities have historically tended to be effective as inflation hedges. Over the past year, pandemic-induced supply shortages and demand spikes have...
The SWIFT ban applies to about 70% of Russia’s banking activities. Notably, oil and natural gas payments are excluded. Russia is a major supplier of base metals to Europe, and these have seen price rises to levels not seen in a decade. Plus, the rise in natural gas prices will ...