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By Jill Mislinski The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out on Tuesday morning. The headline number for March came in at 101.8, up 0.1 from the previous month. The index is at the 80th percentile in this series. Today's number came in above the Investing.com fo...
By Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit ti...
With earnings expected to climb just 3.6% in 2019 and PE multiples above both the 5-year and 10-year average, how is the S&P 500 ( SPY ) expected to generate a total return of almost 10%? That figure is divided up into roughly 7.5% of price gains to a level of 3096, based on consensus esti...
As big fans of Bespoke's research, the firm published their long-awaited earnings season preview today. Here is the first chart: Here is the second chart: Although the sharp first quarter 2019 rally in the S&P 500 throws a fly in the ointment, the upshot of the sentiment analysis for...
(Source: " Market's Favorite Recession Indicator Lurches Lower in New Year ") The investment world and the financial medias are abuzz with the USD yield curve and its growing flattening/inversion, and for good reasons. Here is why the inversion is so important - it augurs glooming times. ...
According to the CME Group's quarterly dividend futures , the rate at which S&P 500 dividends are growing will peak in the current quarter of 2019-Q2, then will go on to decelerate through mid-2020. The deceleration becomes more apparent when we track the trailing twelve-month sum of qu...
After two very bullish months (January and February), the US stock market moved rather sideways in March, but the uptrend since the December lows is still intact (and maybe even the long-term uptrend since 2009). Since the December lows, the major US indices rallied about 20% within a very sho...
Introduction: I’ve been forecasting a slowdown in the leading job sectors For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to co...
Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on April 5. The report showed a rise in nonfarm employment of 196,000 in March. The number was ahead of expectations of a gain of 175,000. Preliminary numbers for the pr...
The wild stock market action during the fourth quarter of 2018 has faded in the rearview mirror of market participants. The panic that gripped many investors during the final three months of 2018 is now heralded as another in a long series of buying opportunities cementing the overall market p...