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On Tuesday, the Fed hinted that it was ready to take action if the US economy started showing signs of weakness. The market cheered and rallied, and we are now only 2% away from all-time highs (as of the time of writing this article). The stock market now expects at least one rate cut, while t...
Since the S&P 500 peaked in late September 2018, the goal of the attached spreadsheet was to give readers a feel for the change in the EPS estimates for 2019, relative to the market action and change in the S&P 500's return. The fascinating metric for me is that the top 10 S&P 50...
By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Was last week's bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what's to come if the Fed cuts rates this year? One of my research colleagues came into the office looking a little starstruck last week. He'd just snapped a photo of Federal Re...
In our last report published on Seeking Alpha, the sell 2 (S2) level for the E-mini S&P 500 was at 2872. The market was at 2830. The market continued the uptrend and reached a high of 2886.25. Our anticipated target last week was 2872. The weekly range was 2812-2872. The Variable Changin...
On Friday evening, the Trump administration announced that planned tariffs on all imports from Mexico are "suspended indefinitely". After the president called off the tariffs, the State department posted a joint declaration on its website outlining a series of commitments. The New York Tim...
Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go ...
By Edward Perks, E xecutive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions Amid a renewed US-China trade spat and additional tariff tensions between the United States and Mexico, investor concerns about a possible recession have heightened, accord...
By Carmel Corbett Wellso As sectors ranging from manufacturing to financials experience disruption, the valuation gap between growth and value stocks continues to widen. Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains why careful stock selection is important at this stage of the cycle. ...
An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue th...