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An inverted yield curve has historically been the most accurate indicator of an impending or concurrent recession. The inversion during late 2006 and most of 2007 is a good example. Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue th...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on June 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn here . Different forward looking models show increasing likelihood of a recession. Most recent readings of key series highlighted by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) suggest a peak, altho...
The world economy has grown tremendously in the last 100 years driven by multiple factors such as population growth, technological advancements and rapid urbanization, not to mention a healthy dose of inflation (with exceptions) throughout the time. We expect the global economic growth to slow...
Investment Thesis I wrote a short article on the S&P 500 ( SPY ) a couple of months ago. While it seems I was early, we did see the market decline during the month of May before recovering recently. One could certainly make the argument that the equity market got ahead of itself during...
The US recession warnings are flying every which way lately in the wake of an inverted yield curve. The spread on the 10-year less 3-month yields, in particular, has unleashed a wave of predictions that a new downturn is near. But some analysts point out that another widely followed spread - 1...
By Robert Hughes Surveys of purchasing managers from the Institute for Supply Management suggest support for continued economic expansion but also highlight concerns over trade policy and tariffs, as well as ongoing difficulty in filling open jobs. On balance, the results are positive but ...
Originally published on June 5, 2019 By Ansh Chaudhary The Dow rallied over 500 points on Tuesday (6/4) and has continued that rally as of Wednesday morning. This comes after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Fed would "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion," i...
Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ((BLS)) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is eve...
Sentiment on the part of individual investors in the weekly survey from AAII has been reflecting equity weakness throughout May, and this week was once again no exception. Despite the rally over the past two sessions, declines Monday and at the end of last week have dragged bullish sentime...
By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 215,00...