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Sell in May and go away did not work this year, so far. May was an ugly month, but June has brought a powerful rally in the stock market. Last week, the E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract demonstrated how strong the price action in stocks has been. Source: CQG As the chart highlights, ...
With equities pulling back in May, investor sentiment has held a bearish bias over the past few weeks. Last week's rally has reversed this build-up of bearish sentiment to a small degree, as the percentage of investors reporting as bulls in this week's AAII survey grew to 26.84% from 22.53...
On Wednesday, Bloomberg ran an article featuring a handful of soundbites from Chen Zhao, co-founder of Montreal-based Alpine Macro and a former co-director of macro research at Brandywine Global Investment Management. You can read the piece for yourself, but the gist of it is that Zhao be...
First, let's get to the S&P 500 Earnings metrics missed this weekend: Fwd 4-qtr est: $171.52 vs. $171.47 PE ratio: 16.7x PEG ratio: 3.63x S&P 500 earnings yld: 5.97% vs. last week's 6.23% Y/y growth of Fwd est: +4.7% vs. last week's +4.66% (Source: earnings data from IB...
There are many signs that astute investors look for to confirm that a bottom has been made after a market decline. One of the most important signs is the tell-tale increase in investor pessimism as measured by various sentiment polls. But an even more reliable indication that the market is pri...
The "indefinite suspension" of tariffs on Mexico notwithstanding, trade tensions have not abated in earnest. Risk assets were obviously on the front foot Monday thanks in part to President Trump's decision not to pull the tariff trigger on America's southern neighbor and, naturally, the risk...
Over the past couple of weeks, we have been discussing a " sellable rally " following the sell-off during the month of May. To wit : "This week we are going to look at the recent sell-off and the potential for a short-term 'sellable' rally to rebalance portfolio risks into. The markets o...
It's a sign of just how volatile the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) has become in recent weeks that we're using the phrase "Lévy flight events" to describe the recent changes in the level of stock prices. If you're new to the kind of analysis we do, a Lévy flight is simply describ...
On Tuesday, the Fed hinted that it was ready to take action if the US economy started showing signs of weakness. The market cheered and rallied, and we are now only 2% away from all-time highs (as of the time of writing this article). The stock market now expects at least one rate cut, while t...