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Summary The AAII sentiment survey showed bullish sentiment drop from 33.3% last week down to 27.7%. The current reading on bearish sentiment is well below the highs from throughout the spring and early summer. The bull-bear spread fell to -14.7 which is the lowest reading sinc...
Summary Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key measure of private domestic demand, have shown greater resilience. Real consumer spending contributed a total of 0.99 percentage points to real GDP growth. Exports rose at a 17.06 percent pace while imports rose at...
Summary Each year, roughly 120 economists, central bankers, and journalists meet in the wealthy resort town of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The conference, known as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, is virtually unknown to the general public but widely watched by smart money investor...
The market is in the process of a healthy pullback from a technically overbought condition. The bears are pounding their chests, convinced we will take out the June lows. The improvement in market fundamentals and the macroeconomic landscape argues otherwise. A phenomena...
The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI. The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. The UK's composite PMI fell in three of the four months through July. However, at 52.1, it remains above the boom/bust level, tho...
Risk off had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. The S&P500 ended the session with a year-to-date loss of 20%. The Nasdaq100 was down 28%, while...
There's a danger to have a central banker centric view of the universe, where everything that happens on inflation is because of central bankers. It's critically important to figure out how much of this inflation is from supply shocks and how much is from excess demand and stimulus, m...
The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...
What are the odds of a recession? What are the risks that inflation will stay elevated? How are housing markets evolving in a rising rate environment? From the risk of a recession, to the stickiness of inflation, to the prospects for the housing market, TD Econom...
The U.S., along with the U.K., the eurozone countries, and many other nations around the world, are in a deep inflation hole. In the U.S., headline inflation is running at more than 8% on a year-over-year basis, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is running in the 6% ter...