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We have seen crypto disruption expand across the financial system and expect this to continue. Inflation pressures may linger through 2022 and pose a risk of spiraling into a more persistent economic factor. Historically in these market environments, real assets—including n...
At the end of 2019, had we been told that a two-year pandemic was about to begin, we would have found it impossible to predict the set of returns that followed in subsequent years. Historically, “tightening,” or “over-tightening,” policy was about corrallin...
New orders for durable goods increased in November, rising 2.5 percent, the second consecutive gain and the 17th increase in the last 19 months. Core capital goods orders have risen in 17 of the last 19 months, putting the level at $78.8 billion, just below the record high of $78.9 bi...
Even prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, the labor force participation rate in the United States had been in a structural downtrend for decades. However, the pandemic brought about a significant drop below the historic trend, with limited signs of recovery over the past 20 month...
After the dramatic disruptions of 2020, and even with the curve balls we keep getting thrown from the virus, the economy has managed to stay on reasonably firm footing as we head into the new year. Compared to the experience of the long 1970s, the inflation we are seeing today really ...
Inflation and rising interest rates are often sources of fear, but they can be opportunities too. We outline the underlying factors that determine whether they help or hurt a given stock. 2022 is going to be a year for stock pickers with fundamentals driving performance. For...
Inflation has skyrocketed and aggressive monetary policy is the key factor in understanding it. The Federal Reserve has at least acted, and will reduce its monthly sovereign bond purchases to $20 billion and $10 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities. Despite runaway inflat...
The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in December but remains at a historically moderate level overall. The composite index increased 3.9 points, or 3.5 percent, to 115.8. From a year ago, the index is up 33.0 percent. The gain in the composite index was dri...
Each boom-and-bust cycle has seen a progressively lower interest rate cycle with limbo-like lower highs and lower lows. While central bankers are likely to be cautious about some aspects of the current wave of inflation, it seems likely that they will need to act in 2022. Markets ...
There are hints that US growth may suffer in the new year. The latest risk factor is the political collapse of the Build Back Better Act. The good news: there’s a strong tailwind in Q4, which will help limit the damage in 2022’s Q1. The Capital Spectator’s Mac...