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In politics and economics, a Potemkin village is any construction (literal or figurative) whose sole purpose is to provide an external façade to lead the population to believe the country is faring better than reality. The Fed is now discussing reversing monetary policy (by hikin...
Global PMIs show a slowing trend but remain at expansion levels. Investors ponder if stocks have bottomed. Earnings are a green light, and inflation is a red light. Corporate earnings remain a bright spot. Selectivity remains the key to success. Job reports are strong but wage...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The indicators are divided up into long leading, short leading, and coincident timeframes. All sorts of commodities, including oil and industrial commodities, are making new highs. Additionall...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 467,000 jobs in January, easily beating expectations. The revised data now show more robust payroll growth over the past 13 months with an average monthly gain of 549,000. Private payrolls posted a 444,000 gain in January with revised data now showing a...
It’s been an incredible couple of weeks in the markets, one in which we’ve seen another hawkish move from multiple central banks, big swings in stocks on the back of earnings, and tensions around Ukraine intensify. Traders will be paying very close attention to incoming ...
The jobs report was much stronger than feared. This has sent yield across the curve sharply higher. Rising rates may push stocks to new lows. For further details see: Strong Jobs Report May Push Stocks To New Lows Amid Rising Rates
Annual benchmark revisions to employment data clouded the headline reading. Employment growth has been flat for eight months. Real earnings growth continues to decline. The bond market is now definitively suggesting five rate hikes are coming in 2022. The trend of "growth ...
Job Openings series is a market psychology indicator. While Retail Sales, Employment, Vehicle Sales, etc. are hard counts, market prices and Job Openings are market perceptions of future outcomes. The fact that Job Openings have spiked to record highs in recent months indicates demand...
Manufacturing new orders also ticked down in January and have weakened noticeably since March 2021. Backlogs of orders in the services sector likely grew again in January though the pace may have slowed. The manufacturing prices paid index rose in January after falling sharply in ...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance decreased by 23,000 for the week ending January 29, coming in at 238,000. Continuing claims in all federal programs totaled just 71,155 for the week ending January 15, a drop of 9,744. Despite some volatility over the last fe...