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US economy shrugged off the effects of Omicron and should be relatively resilient to the headwinds caused by Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine by virtue of being an energy producer and having limited direct economic linkages. Higher interest rates are coming with 2% still...
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index fell to 56.5 percent in February, losing 3.4 points from 59.9 percent in the prior month. Backlogs of orders in the services sector likely grew again in February as the index increased to 64.2 percent from 57.4 perc...
Today morning's seasonally adjusted 215K new claims, down 18K from the previous week's revised figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 226K. There's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average is a more useful number than the weekly data....
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 18,000 for the week ending February 26, coming in at 215,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.906 million for the week ending February 12, a drop of 60,522 from the prior week. C...
On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed cut its GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2022 to zero. Just a few days ago, the estimate was for 0.6% growth. That was down from 1.3% just a few days before that. Keep in mind, Atlanta Fed GDP estimates tend to start high and then fall as the quart...
The most recent sanctions are wreaking havoc on global financial markets. The Russian ruble is also plunging, and the Russian economy is being squeezed. Most global equities are also down since the start of the war, and with investors on edge, volatility is spiking. The effects of thi...
Combined with the latest median household income estimates, we find the raw affordability of the median new home sold in the U.S. reached an all-time low in January 2022. Median household income only covered 17.8% of the median new home sale price in January 2022. The average mort...
When the BLS revised (benchmarks) its CES (Establishment Survey) last month, you could at least understand the purpose and the underlying theory, even if you never fully agree with the reasons why the government says short-run employment changes must be largely free from large variations....
The significant volatility seen in the stock market recently from the Russian war/invasion of Ukraine is further evidence of how this fear dynamic can create short-term panics. Russia is more than a rounding error because the country accounts for about 11% of global energy production....
A battery of global sanctions is likely to cripple the Russian economy. European equities are underperforming this week. Market psychology is pessimistic. For further details see: Ukraine Crisis Puts Pressure On Energy Markets; The Fed Responds