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Citing Fed Chair Powell’s recent inflation alarm, Goldman Sachs is predicting the U.S. central bank will hike policy rates half a percent at both its May and June meetings. Even though the highest risk corporate bonds have so far fallen less than Treasuries, their yields (borro...
The stock market has performed reasonably well in the year following an initial interest-rate hike. Investors still need to be focused on signs of slower growth. The housing market is the first segment of the economy to feel the weight of tighter monetary policy conditions. I ...
The first quarter of 2022 has been mostly characterized by rising yields, with the upward climb interrupted only by the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, which sparked a flight-to-safety reaction in late February and early March. Since then, however, the selloff in bonds largely...
With the Federal Reserve starting to raise interest rates and bond markets creaking under the stress, mortgage rates are up to 4.5% and are nearing the highest levels in over a decade. The mortgage payment required to cover the median existing home price at the national average mortga...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions response, and the gyrations in commodity markets cast an even thicker layer of uncertainty on what already was an uncertain economic and financial market outlook before the onset of this horrific war. Despite the many unknowns, we dra...
A major variable for monitoring the economy’s strength, or lack thereof, is the labor market. There are no easy or fail-safe answers, but a useful way to begin is by running a simple linear regression on a set of key economic and financial-market factors. The first cut of i...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape - with economic consequences. While the 2022 global growth rate represents a slowdown from 5.8% in 2021, the world economy has sufficient resilience to avert a recession. While Russia ...
Bond yields continue to rise, but stocks have cut their year-to-date losses in half. Until real yields turn positive, the bond market will not be competition for the stock market. The economy remains strong, and corporate profits are robust. Focusing on rates of change in forw...
There is a wide disparity in valuation multiples for small companies versus large companies that both have high ROEs. There's something foundational about active value investing where the less "new" the better. My hypothesis is that larger companies whose brands are by nature bett...
The Fed is talking tough on inflation by projecting a large and rapid increase in rates, but we think it won’t fully deliver and be forced to live with inflation. The S&P 500 scored its biggest weekly gain since 2020, and bond yields rose. Chinese shares rebounded sharply a...