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Spending shifts slowly back to services. But spending on goods still massively above trend, despite supply shortages. Spending on durable goods continues to be handicapped by large-scale supply issues, particularly with new vehicles, where global production continues to get hit by sem...
Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...
It's that time again, where the global financial markets community swoons over the latest US jobs report. It's expected to be strong. But often the market can ignore the number and instead use it as an excuse to latch on to a preferred trend. In that respect, it will be key to see...
Fundamentals always win out in the end, regardless of what style is trending. Volatility opens up opportunity in names that were previously out of reach. Our strategy summarized: clear buy/sell disciplines, a flexible asset allocation process, and a long-term perspective. Fo...
Bullish sentiment turned slightly lower this week in spite of the S&P 500’s move higher, shedding 0.9 percentage points to come in at 31.9%. Bearish sentiment fell for a second week in a row, falling another 7.9 percentage points to 27.5%. Neutral sentiment clipped abov...
Final Q4 GDP was left pretty much unchanged from its second estimate. The reason was about $20 billion (give or take) removed from final sales but then added to inventories. Already epic, the quarterly change in private inventories (nominal) now stands at barely shy of a quarter-trillion ...
The number of job openings and quits is very high. The labor force participation rate for older groups is down. The "Great Resignation" is real. For further details see: Is There Really A Labor Shortage?
Personal income rose 0.5 percent in February, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Weak growth for real personal income excluding transfers is a concern for the outlook for real consumer spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain and extre...
What if China builds, with its e-CYN, a global presence with a lot of trading partners in the world of digital currencies? What if currency markets bifurcated into overlapping systems, one using the dollar and one using the e-CYN? How would this change in the market work out? Woul...
Claims continue to bounce around but have posted declines in seven of the last ten weeks. Weekly initial claims data continue to suggest the labor market remains very tight. Despite some volatility, initial claims have trended lower in recent weeks and remain at an extremely low l...