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The Ukraine invasion and resulting sanctions have led to a steep downturn in the Russian economy. Rising backlogs were most commonly reported in the US and across the Eurozone. Growth is proving encouragingly resilient, but the March survey data indicate that risks have tilted to ...
The raw affordability of new homes held steady at record low levels in February 2022. While median household income increased, that increase kept pace with the ongoing escalation of new home prices. The average mortgage payment for a median new home sold in February 2022 represents 29...
Inflation expectations have kept the Federal Reserve center stage as they commenced their interest rate rising cycle in March. The war in Ukraine and Omicron’s spread in China impacted inflation and supply chains differently, but both delay supply chain normalization. Regar...
The U.S. government finances its spending by collecting taxes and issuing debt. A steep curve reflects expectations of higher inflation and interest rates that come with a more robust economy. Even in a recession, some sectors do well while others do poorly. For further deta...
One of the most impactful sectors here, auto sales fell to a 13.33 million annualized rate in March, down 30% from their cycle peak last April. At the same time, importers of durable goods, stressed by supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, over-ordered goods in anticipation of...
Fed rhetoric is driving long-term rates higher, which will slow demand for homes and autos. Yet the economy is strengthening as we start the second quarter with consumer and corporate balance sheets in great shape. The stock market recovery looks poised to continue once we begin f...
The labor force recovery since the pandemic shock low is on an upward trajectory within a longer-term downward trend. Demographics seem to be the single most powerful force in longer-term labor force trends, and they remain in the downward trajectory, as we can see from these charts. ...
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite services index increased to 58.3 percent in March, rising 1.8 points from 56.5 percent in the prior month. Backlogs of orders in the services sector likely grew again in March as the index increased to 64.5 percent from 64.2 perce...
Production and demand growth was subdued by a combination of headwinds, including the Ukraine war and new COVID-19 related disruptions - notably in China. In Europe, the Ukraine war took a toll on production growth, most prominently leading to renewed falls in output in Poland and the...
With the Russia/Ukraine conflict raging, energy prices soaring, inflation spiking, the Fed hiking rates, and pressure on asset prices, it is reasonable to have a more bearish view. One of the biggest challenges investors always face is allocating capital to markets once a correction o...