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There is no scientific way to determine the consensus or when to embrace it or fade it. With real rates rising recently, the commodity bull may be getting long in the tooth. Stocks were mostly lower last week with small and mid-cap value the exceptions. For further details s...
A look at inflation and how it's building stress in the economy. An introduction to a new trading bloc of countries that could be disastrous for the US dollar. S&P 500 valuation and where it could go. For further details see: Stress In The Economy And An Introduction...
Stocks sputter as rotation out of growth continues. Utilities, agriculture stocks catch a relative bid as more new lows are hit in the broader market. Economic rollover potential persists as negative earnings guidance emerges. For further details see: Weekly S&P 500 ...
If China were to continue to pursue a Zero Covid policy amidst rising case counts, supply chains originating in Asia could get shut down again. On the food front, wheat is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict, which has been reflected in the performance of wheat futures. ...
The war in Ukraine has led to disruptions in gas markets and global supply chains. Some of the services categories that are the most sensitive to wage inflation are also looking pretty hot right now. The Fed’s pivot toward higher interest rates to corral inflation makes for...
Ten-year Treasury yields jumped another 12 bps this week, with a two-week gain of 44 bps. War rages in Ukraine with no end in sight. Meanwhile, March Consumer Prices were reported up 8.5% y-o-y, the strongest inflation since 1981. While Treasury yields are up sharply, it’s ...
No surprise, inflation remains hot, and sentiment stays cold. China's COVID issues continue to impact the global supply chain scene. There isn't much "working" in this backdrop but what is working continues to bear fruit. The transition to the "NEW ERA" equity market continues...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The good news is the yield curve has almost completely normalized, with the 10 year minus 2 year and 3 month sp...
There has been a surge in consumer spending on services in recent months. Inflation in retail sales means inflation in durable goods and in nondurable goods. Stimulus Miracle March 2021 was a very tough month to beat. For further details see: Retail Sales Vs. Raging Infl...
From the perspective of an inflation-targeting central bank, the problem is that most of these short-run effects are outside of their control. Many businesses built their models around workers having no bargaining power, as well relying on hidden costs that are borne by workers. M...