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Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims remain off of the low from one month ago, but this week did see a sequential improvement. Before seasonal adjustment, claims were also impressive, falling from 224.1K to 196.9K as the brief seasonal uptick at this point of the year unwinds. ...
The "World Economic Outlook" report released by the IMF on April 19th depicted a worsening in the global economic scenario for 2022: lower economic growth and higher inflation. Emerging market and developing economies face a common set of external shocks, but the impacts of those comm...
The Millennial generation is already making more money than its Gen X predecessors and Boomer parents when comparing like-for-like ages. Adjusting for inflation, Millennial households are earning 10% more than Gen-X households and 21% more than Boomer households. The combined pre-...
The nature of the economic cycle, originally due to the COVID pandemic, has been amplified. The ongoing lockdowns and the military conflict in Europe have prompted us to revise our inflation projections further. The dynamic shifting of corporate winners and losers is a constant an...
Based on past patterns, reported earnings growth is likely to be modestly higher than that. We think the biggest risk is from the impact of aggressive monetary policy response to contain inflation. The economy is still growing, consumers are still spending, and many businesses are...
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Inflation and market volatility are typically unsettling to consumers and long-term investors. As of late March, the VIX Index seems 'cheap' relative to some other forward risk measures. For further details...
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Inflation and market volatility are typically unsettling to consumers and long-term investors. As of late March, the VIX Index seems 'cheap' relative to some other forward risk measures. For further details...
We have a healthy labor market, and it’s hard to have a recession when the labor market is on fire. If you go back to 1970, there’s been the same number of examples where an oil price spike year-over-year of 60% occurred that led to a recession, and the same number of ex...
The S&P 500 is once again fighting to gain back some lost ground in the past week. Of course, with bullish sentiment historically depressed, bearish sentiment is historically elevated at 43.9%. As such, bears continue to outnumber bulls by 25 full percentage points. For ...
We prefer equities even as bond yields have sprinted higher. Global growth is still solid, and we see central banks ultimately living with inflation. U.S. 10-year yields hit new three-year highs last week, and stocks fell. The European Central Bank affirmed our view it will normalize ...