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New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that prices continue to rise at breakneck speed (much faster than the Federal Reserve has projected). The surge in prices has caught most households off-guard. Perhaps more surprisingly, it has caught Fed officials off-guard, as well...
The art and science of modeling returns of financial assets is forever unsatisfying because no one model fully captures the true behavior of asset performances. The one-year distribution, in short, tells a very different story from one-day returns, and so the opportunities for this ti...
During a bull market, which is the only market many investors have ever navigated, buying stocks is easy. Selling stocks is the most difficult challenge for any investor. That single decision becomes plagued with a host of emotional biases. When everyone agrees on the direction of...
Beijing prodding may have reversed much of the week’s equities market pain, though I doubt positive sentiment will return anytime soon. China Development Bank CDS jumped 12.5 to 91.5 bps, surpassing the March 2020 crisis spike to a five-year high (began the year at 55bps). ...
U.S. economy contracts by 1.4%, but consumer spending strengthens. Markets react to intensifying U.S. wage pressures. Key takeaways from Q1 earnings season. For further details see: More Than Meets The Eye? Unpacking The First Quarter Decline In U.S. GDP
A blockbuster week in store in financial markets and one that begins with bank holidays across various countries. The standout event next week will naturally be the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on Wednesday when we’re likely to see the first 50 basis point rate hike...
With the Federal Reserve embarking on an interest rate hiking cycle to counteract realized inflation, there’re concerns about consumers - particularly those with lower incomes. The Fed characterizes incomes differently, but the data shows that consumer balance sheets coming out...
The final April results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment bounced higher in April after hitting a multiyear low in March. The current economic conditions index rose to 69.4 from 67.2 in March. Economic risks remain elevated due to...
The dollar matters for the larger-cap brethren within the stock market. No one believes the US economy is contracting with the JOLTS survey showing 12 million jobs available and only 6 million unemployed. Financial sector stocks performed horribly in April and especially after Q1 ...
EM debt currently offers value to investors with a medium- to long-term horizon and a willingness to tolerate a period of higher volatility. EM sovereign high-yield spreads are particularly compelling, especially relative to U.S. high-yield debt. Longer term, we believe the outloo...