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With 10 basis points left to make bond market history, the 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday a tad over 3.142%. In the past 40 years, no Fed rate hiking cycle saw the 10-year rate exceed the high from the prior Fed rate-hiking cycle. While inflation is not as bad as it was i...
Some astute stock market observers are pointing out that due to inflation, a massive P/E compression is now underway. You can’t have a negative quarter when nearly all the constituent components of GDP are rising. Small businesses appear to be incurring a higher "quit" rate...
Sentiment on the part of small businesses held firm in April instead of the further decline that was expected. The headline index came in unchanged at 93.2, versus estimates of a 0.3-point decline to 92.9. The percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their firm’s bi...
The market depth has been reduced - that's the liquidity shock. Forced selling during the liquidity shock creates a buying opportunity. The peak Fed hawkishness could trigger the rally - but it must be supported with the peak inflation. For further details see: S&P 5...
After surging in February, the growth rate of U.S. exports to China slowed to single digits in March 2022. The year-over-year growth of U.S. imports from China also slowed, but not as much as U.S. exports did. But none of that takes China's new COVID lockdowns in its largest trade...
Metal Sky Star Acquisition Corporation raised $100 million in gross proceeds in a recent IPO. The SPAC seeks to merge with a middle-market company with operations outside of China. While management has investment expertise, they have no successful SPAC track record, so I'm on Hold...
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported no change in the Small Business Optimism Index for April, remaining at 93.2. In the report for April, small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased to a net negative 50%, ...
US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers, and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distan...
What is sell in May and go away? What is different between May 1950 and May 2022? Flagging growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates point to down a market. For further details see: Sell In May And Go Away? Yes This Year, No Last 6 Years
Bear markets tend to last much less time than bull markets. Since the stock market is the major fuel for the economy, when stocks get clobbered for a long enough period, the economy follows. Higher interest rates could reduce the contribution to US GDP by as much as nearly 30%. ...