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Among the most challenging aspects of late has been to try and hold a positive medium-term (one- to three-year) view in the midst of very aggressive, downward-facing, fast-moving, cross-asset selloffs. While inflation does seem to have peaked along with expectations and breakevens, th...
We are due for a big rebound after being down six weeks in a row, as there is clarity on the interest rate front with the Fed committed to 50-basis point hikes - and we are basically oversold. We can always overshoot, but a good target is the downtrend that lies between the 50-day (10...
The overall global economic slowdown, plus China’s Covid lockdowns, are taking a toll. Apple and GE have warned their distributors about production and delivery problems due to China. Another example is falling vehicle sales in April in China for BMW, VW Group, and Tesla. Since...
Stock markets have seen immense volatility this year. The sharply rising inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and central banks raising interest rates are all weighing on equities. With volatility expected to remain high, reducing equity risk can be challenging but achie...
The rising rate, rising dollar environment continues with the dollar index hitting a 20-year high last week. That rising dollar is having an impact on the rest of the global economy but so far it has been manageable. There are a lot of companies out there that have come public over th...
Consumer spending rose by 2.7% in Q1, annual rate, adjusted for raging inflation. Gross private domestic investment rose by 2.3% annualized, following the spectacular spike in Q4. Less-catastrophic imports, thereby a less-catastrophic trade deficit, will reduce the drag on GDP. ...
Over the past week, various U.S. Federal Reserve officials have suggested that their first 50-basis point rate hike in 20 years is likely to be followed by more, but that a 75-basis point hike isn’t currently on the table. The U.S. economy grew by 5.7% in 2021. The Fed’s...
We recently cut risk, but stick with stocks over bonds for now. Equity prices now reflect much of the worsening macro outlook and hawkish Fed, in our view. Markets came to grips last week with the trade-off central banks face: choke off growth or live with inflation. Yields fell and s...
The VIX index has been stuck in a range since the end of April. Options betting suggests the VIX spikes above 40 between now and June 15. A VIX spike is one of the piece missing from a short-term bottom in stocks. For further details see: The VIX May Soon Spike Providing...
Investing is really tough. But there's a way to make this slightly more profitable. It won't be easier, but it will be more profitable. Takeaway from the Berkshire Hathaway meeting, and Warren Buffett's stock market timing. Using Buffett's Occidental Petroleum as a case study. ...