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Latest 12 months wholesale price inflation ran 11%. Walmart and Target have big 2Q earnings misses. Oops! Retail demand does not seem to be the problem. In a market where computers and ETFs have no discernment, everything goes on sale. Retail may be uniquely advantaged when it...
Wednesday’s sharp drop in the S&P 500 Index left the U.S. equity benchmark within a hair’s breadth of a bear market. Over the last century in the US, these episodes - defined as a stock market decline of at least 20% - have been relatively brief, lasting on average l...
There is no shortage of reasons for inflation’s push higher this year – commodity shortages due to the war in Ukraine, continued demand for housing amidst strong fundamentals, and low inventory and fresh lockdowns in China creating new waves of supply chain issues. Reces...
Jobless claims have continued to tick higher, with this week’s reading rising to 218K, an increase of 21K versus last week’s print which was revised back below 200K to 197K. Historically, unadjusted claims have fallen week-over-week more than three-quarters of the time i...
Recession risks are rising, with a European recession, oil embargo risks, and China’s zero-Covid uncertainties adding to Fed rate hikes as headwinds. China’s risks are multi-layered and hard for markets to discount. In our view, IMF officials are much more precise in...
Chenghe Acquisition Co. raised $115 million in gross proceeds in a recent U.S. IPO. The SPAC seeks to merge with a fintech company in the Asia Pacific region, ex-China. CHEA's management team has solid industry expertise but no prior successful SPAC track record, so I'm on Hold fo...
A recession is not two-quarters of negative GDP. The US economy is not in a recession today but is on a pre-recessionary path. The labor market will determine if the US economy falls into a recession in the next 6-8 months. The risk of a recession is rising with each passing d...
The primary concern for the public is by far inflation, not recession risk, and not the risk of a bear market in stocks given news headlines as a gauge of importance. The prior tightening seen in financial markets (10-yr UST yield jump) will likely weigh on future growth as measured b...
Concerns about inflation adversely impacting the consumer and corporate profitability appeared to drive the weakness. The consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors led today’s decline, trading down around 5% and 6%, respectively. Given the compounding uncertainty ...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 21,000 for the week ending May 14, coming in at 218,000. The latest result is the highest level since January 22. The latest results for the combined Federal and state programs put the total number of people claiming ben...