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You know you’re in a bear market when China cuts a major interest rate and the US market responds with a paltry bounce and a continuation of its recent sell-off. As stocks continue to fall bond yields are following suit. The S&P 500 (SPX) remained below the 4000 level a...
Risk: We keep talking about the many risks we still see around us, and why we don't believe this is the right time to increase allocation to risk assets. Reward: We believe that there's a limited upside potential until Midterms, and we're unlikely to miss out on too much, even if stoc...
The S&P 500 fell 20% off its January high in intraday trading Friday, only to see a roaring late-day recovery going into monthly options expiration. As of writing this, stocks are down about 18% for the year. Questions that are top of mind for many investors are how deep the d...
After one of the worst starts to a year on record, the stock market appears to be at fair value. There are no indications that a recession is on the horizon. Yet the S&P 500 is flirting with a bear market decline that I expect to be short and shallow. A focus on value has ...
The DJIA is down -13.97%, the S&P 500 is down -18.14% and the NASDAQ is down -27.42%. Other markets are also being affected, and are likely to continue being affected in a serious manner for as long as the Fed is in and raising rates. They say that this is necessary to combat infl...
Our rising price problem is, more than anything, a supply problem, and reducing demand is certainly one way to tackle it. But returning to the pre-COVID growth rate doesn’t mean we are headed to recession, that contraction is in our immediate future. US stocks and REITs wer...
The classical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The first report for Q1 indicated a decline of 1.4%. It will be interesting to see how Q2 GDP is handled after the July 4th holiday. If like the first quarter it is a negative, which looks more likely...
Now is not the time to plan. This is the time to execute the plan. The plan started months ago in the case of stocks but years ago in the case of our bond holdings. We have been warning about inflation and have been adding to our core oil and gold holdings since late 2020. They have b...
The newly government-created post-LIBOR short-term private debt market created an implied government guarantee of short-term corporate debt. This government overreach leaves taxpayers to foot the cost of guaranteeing corporate short-term borrowing. There ought to be a re...
The basic thesis is that the Fed has shocked financial markets with its aggressive position on rates and the needed effect will filter through the economy and inflation data in the coming year. 50/50 stock/bond portfolio is down just 13.4% because bonds have outperformed stocks by a l...