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Central banks have primed markets to expect too many rate hikes in the face of persistent inflation, in our view. This keeps us neutral on stocks in the short run. The U.S. added 390, 000 jobs in May - a number that was matched by new entrants to the labor force. This shows the labor ...
If anything can stop the Fed from tightening and drawing the market lower, it is the unemployment figures. They are also purposely targeting asset prices. Bringing stock prices down is all about a tighter monetary policy at the Fed. This bear market rally could head higher than yo...
May 2022’s payroll estimates weren’t quite the level of downshift President Phillips had warned about, though that’s increasingly likely just a matter of time. As expected, the latest HH employment estimate for May rebounded, though not enough to offset last month...
Stocks closed only slightly down last week, and volatility dropped modestly. The latest disruption to hit the stock market will be the Federal Reserve's effort to reduce the size of its securities portfolio over the next three years. Furthermore, the strength of the U.S. Dollar in...
Breaking from the past, the ECB is expected to signal its intent to hike rates at next month's meeting. The day after the FOMC meeting in May ended, the swaps market priced in a terminal Fed funds rate of 3.75%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on June 7. For further deta...
2022 has been a year unlike many investors have seen in their investing lifetimes. There is considerable technical evidence that U.S. financial markets are in a “bear market.”. While the market sits on critical support, any failure will confirm a recession, and a bea...
Make it stop! Just when it seems as though it couldn’t get any worse, more bad news comes to fruition. Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk both recently openly predicted an economic apocalypse may loom on the horizon. Dimon stated he's bracing himself for an economic hurricane, while...
The week arguably offered some clarity on key facets of today's murky financial, economic and policy backdrops. The strongest pushback to the recent dovish tightening cycle narrative was delivered Monday by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Importantly, elevated inflation is unrele...
“Peak inflation” and “peak Fed” have been twin rallying points for whatever bouts of good feelings have countered the overall negative trend in stock prices thus far this year. The sequence of data releases this week suggests it may be too early to bank on ...
New claims for unemployment insurance are now down to 200,000 as of the last week in May after having risen slightly the second and third weeks of the month. Average hourly wages have increased over the past 12 months by 5.2%, still below the overall increase in prices for the month. ...