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There are a number of signals that the US economy is getting weaker even as inflation gets stronger. In other words, we are hurtling toward stagflation. Target announced plans to cancel orders from suppliers and slash prices to clear out amassed inventory. All the data points to o...
The Chinese government's execution of its zero-COVID policy has slammed trade between the U.S. and China. China's exports to the U.S. fell below the level of recent months, but still recorded double-digit year-over-year growth as progress is being made in reducing the backlog of Chine...
Much Fed and commentator thinking relies on the Phillips curve. It's the central way interest rates affect inflation, in conventional thinking. High interest rates raise real interest rates lower aggregate demand cause unemployment, which causes, via the Phillips curve, lower inflatio...
The latest PMI data compiled for JPMorgan by S&P Global revealed an unwelcome mix of sluggish global economic growth and soaring business costs in May. Although global output growth picked up slightly in May, it remained at one of the weakest levels seen so far in the pandemic rec...
2022 is shaping up to be a very bad year for average Americans. Adjusted for inflation, the average earned income for Americans peaked in December 2021, falling in each month since. One of the more interesting aspects of the inflation unleased in the U.S. is how different it is fr...
It seems as if everything is out-of-sync these days as the transition of the economy through a pandemic, a recession, a supply chain problem, a technological transformation, and more dominate. The economy has been described as being in disequilibrium, being dislocated, and being disjo...
Consumer goods industries remain hamstrung by supply chain bottlenecks, soaring costs, and the shift in spending toward services, reporting only modest growth in May to contribute to a broader manufacturing malaise. Global economic growth continued to be fueled first and foremost by r...
The pace of global economic growth remained among the weakest seen so far during the pandemic recovery period in May, according to the latest PMI data compiled for JPMorgan by S&P Global. Future expectations remain especially weak by historical standards in India and the eurozone ...
Investors are terrified. Such is what you would assume from recent mainstream media headlines and CNBC’s continuous run of “Markets In Turmoil.”. The massive Federal Reserve interventions, bailouts, and zero rates provided a perverse incentive to take on extreme f...
The stock market is stuck between a growth scare and rising long-term interest rates, but I see no recession on the horizon. The labor market is much too strong and shows no signs of weakening. Consumer cash flows and balance sheets are a fortress. The expansion should continu...