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By long-term historical comparison, initial claims remain very low. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, periodic lockdowns in China, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are likely to impact the global economy over the coming months and represent risks to the economic outlook. In...
The latest FOMC made it clear that rates are going much higher from here. This will push prices for the S&P 500 lower, as the equity risk premium widens. The S&P 500 may end up bottoming between 3,200 and 3,300 if all goes well. For further details see: Stocks Fa...
The Fed is “in” on raising rates. They have begun their inflation-fighting battle with a 75-basis point increase. The collateral implications are broad and also quite serious. All of this will also spill over into the equity markets as corporate revenues and profits decl...
One of the most memorable "Seinfeld" episodes is "The Soup Nazi" where Yev Kassem demands a strict regimentation from his patrons. Yesterday, in what is likely to become one of the most memorable FOMC meetings, Jay Powell decided to play the role of Yev Kassem. This time, the stri...
The Fed revised its outlook for interest rate policy to align with that of financial markets. That has helped the Fed regain some credibility in its fight to contain inflation. It has also raised growth concerns, as the Fed sets aside its mandate for full employment. Regardles...
The Fed's move wasn't entirely surprising, after markets were tipped off by a Wall Street Journal story late Monday indicating that a 75 basis-point (bps) hike was likely. At the press conference, Chairman Powell commented that by the end of 2022, the central bank intends to raise its...
Fed officials’ new economic projections show they unanimously agree the fed funds rate needs to be above neutral by year-end. As a result of the tighter monetary policy tightening path, Fed officials downgraded their growth and unemployment forecasts. Fed officials signaled...
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May, rising four points following an eight-point fall in April. While broad trends and risks continue, there are some signs of inflection in a few areas. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell back in...
The market feels rough right now. Systems analysis shows the market will make a full recovery. Don't be the person shaken out at the bottom of the market. For further details see: How We Know It's Going To Be Okay
The Fed, as expected, announced a 75 basis point rate hike at today's FOMC meeting. Not a whole lot new was revealed by Chair Powell during the afternoon press conference. Stocks and bonds rallied, commodities were mixed, and crypto did not participate in the buying. The U.S. Doll...