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As the S&P 500 has made a considerable move to the upside, bulls have continued to come back this week, rising to 29.6%. Albeit improved, bearish sentiment remains well above the historical average, and the double-digit two-week decline is actually the seventh of the year. The...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 7,000 for the week ending July 16th, coming in at 251,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.325 million for the week ending July 2nd, a drop of 47,074 from the prior week. While the ...
We've seen some moderation of the supply chain, and inflation expectations have stabilized. Challenge for investors and policymakers is what you do with core inflation being more sticky. Financial markets have priced in two cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2023. Wi...
Persistent inflation and a strong labor market will allow central banks to continue raising interest rates. PPI inflation indicates a normalization of supply, absent energy, and food-related issues. Leading economic indicators show a deterioration of conditions and markets appear ...
The corporate profits picture is better than expected so far. Money managers have not been this underweight stocks since March 2009, which was the bear market low during the Great Financial Crisis. A recession is not in the cards for 2022. Animal spirits returned to the ...
Are CTAs, managed futures, and trend followers getting crushed? Why has the SocGen Trend Index, approximating performance of trend followers, held up the past month and a half despite some rather violent commodity retracements? There is more going on in trend following than just commo...
The U.S. economy is at an elevated risk of recession. For the combined population of working American teens, we find that the employment level peaked at 5,660,000 in March 2022, falling 102,000 (or 1.8%) to 5,558,000 through June 2022. While we do see developing downtrends in port...
As we enter the second half of 2022, predictions of a possible recession range widely as the key drivers of inflation shift from goods to commodities and services, notably housing. For bond investors, the sharp rise in the rate landscape has had an outsize impact across the board, wit...
For decades, globalization has been on an inexorable rise, a key pillar fueling economic growth, driving inflation and yields down, bolstering corporate profit margins and supporting an upward climb in market valuations. Over the past few years, though, cracks have started to develop ...
Markets have entered a new regime characterized by higher levels of volatility and uncertainty as central banks try to rein in inflation. As recession fears rise, alternative data indicators reveal that markets may not be accurately pricing recession risk despite inflationary pressure...