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The S&P 500 closes July in its fourth and largest counter-trend rally since beginning the 2022 bear market. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has led the way lower since January in its own succession of ladders and snakes within an ongoing bear market. Canada’s TSX index tends to l...
Is a Fed neutral interest rate enough to pause further hikes? How is Europe coping with its natural gas shortage? China lifts tech restrictions and supports property developers. On this week's Market Week in Review episode, Research Analyst Emily Zhao interviews Investme...
Last week was action-packed and it’s not likely to ease up with attention now shifting from the Fed and the “technical recession” in the US to the labour market. Various officials have highlighted the strength of the labour market when explaining why the US isn...
Special purpose acquisition vehicles were relatively unused until the firehose of pandemic liquidity spurred Wall Street capital markets teams into action, forming hundreds of companies to raise billions of dollars of equity in these so-called blank-check offerings. There are still ov...
SPAC issuance has been reduced to a trickle for most of 2022, but now even that is drying up. July is expected to be the first month with no blank check IPOs in over five years. In the last two years, the SPAC market has gone from boom to bust. The pace of new SPAC IPO filings has...
Markets are giddy about a looming recession and a potential Fed pivot. The Fed sees rates rising to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The market sees rate cuts starting in March. The FOMC meeting wasn't as dovish as the market wants to make it seem. The Fed raised rates by anothe...
Rather than making money harder to get, the U.S. government needs to focus on the other side of the demand vs. supply equation. The Fed’s prescription is to suppress demand (borrowing and spending) by raising interest rates. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve tackled inflat...
I doubt the NBER will conclude we are in a recession, given the consistent strength in consumer spending and the labor market. The negative print in the second quarter was due to inventory adjustments from last year's build. If we avoid a recession, as I have asserted, history sug...
Today’s GDP reading officially shows two quarters of negative GDP. A lot of this talk about recessions ignores the fact that housing is a big slow moving sector. The Fed appears to be pivoting towards a more dovish stance and that’s part of why stocks have been bounc...
Initial jobless claims have started to rise with the monthly average in July around 40% higher than the average in March. Three regional Fed PMIs (Philadelphia, Texas, and New York) are seeing declines in the Future Employment component of the survey. Job openings fell by -600,000...