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Summary Americans saw both their average nominal and inflation-adjusted income per capita rise for the first time since February in July 2022. July 2022's average per capita income of $34,400 falls $502 below December 2021's peak of $34,902. All of the nominal gains in the ave...
Summary To us, last Friday’s bloodbath signals that high volatility is back. Equity tends to suffer under high volatility. Furthermore, our view is that such high volatility could persist due to several fundamental forces at play, ranging from inflation, to interest rates, ...
Summary In July, the number of layoffs and discharges dipped for the second month in a row by a smidgen and remained in the record-low range in the data going back to the year 2000. The 1.398 million layoffs in July were down by 42,000 from July last year and down by 428,000, or b...
Summary The outperformance of either "value" or "growth" tends to reverse around recessions. In an economic expansion, an investment theme is often driven to excess. In the next expansion, the focus tends to shift to what has been underinvested in. While the commodity bull run...
Summary Despite the recent outperformance of US-based companies and US investors’ home-country bias, we believe investors will still benefit from proper diversification for a well-balanced portfolio. In countries with less-efficient markets, there can be greater investment ...
Summary The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in August, the first increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The composite index increased by 7.9 points, or 8.3 percent to 103.2. From a year ago, the index is still down 10.4 percent. Both co...
Summary The Rule Of 20 says the bear market may just be resting despite much commentary to the contrary. With the Federal Reserve reversing that monetary accommodation, such poses a very significant, and likely unrealized, risk to investors. The rule peaked at the 2nd highest ...
Summary The Bull Case: A pullback into the 4165-4020 region. We then need to see the market hold this region and then turn back up to make one more high. The Bear Case: if we fail to make a new high above SPX 4330 and fall below the 4020 region then 2023 is likely setting up for a...
Summary Interest rates will move higher and remain in restrictive territory for longer than the market currently expects. The length of time required to drive inflation to low and stable levels remains uncertain. The Federal Open Market Committee expects the pace of rate incre...
Summary On 26 August 2022, Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. His forceful language and deliberate references to the lessons of history laid to rest any hope that the Fed will shift away from its tightening strategy. Equity markets respond...