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Summary The S&P500 jumped 4.0% this week, boosting the index’s two-week rally to 8.9%. UK 10-year gilt yields sank 58 bps this week to 3.78%, with yields down 116 bps from October 12th highs. At least for now, markets seem convinced that the global central bank comm...
Summary Politicians and talking heads widely reported that GDP growth shows the economy is fine—nothing to worry about, really—and that we dodged the bullet by avoiding a recession. We’re quite confident that a recession could also have been avoided by another...
Summary The macro charts present a sobering picture that aligns with a beleaguered economy. Investors are witnessing "typical" bear market price action. It's a "market of stocks" when it comes to earnings reports. They have been solid in general, but macro headwinds weigh on l...
Summary The outlook on China stimulus. Bank of Canada slows pace of rate hikes. Q3 earnings season update. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, and Investment Strategy Analyst BeiChen Lin discus...
Summary Will the fourth 75 basis-point rate hike be the last major rise before the Fed downshifts in December? Next week’s FOMC decision is widely expecting a unanimous vote for one last major rate increase. Inflation has hit double-digits and remains the ECB’s numbe...
Summary Midterm elections typically see major stock market rallies. Stocks are currently poised for an extended short covering event. A Fed "pivot" would offer even more incentive for the bulls to push stocks higher. A long-overdue round of short covering is underway in ...
Summary U.S. equities fell more than 9% in September, pushing year-to-date losses to roughly 24%. Only five calendar years have been worse, and three of those were during the Depression. September’s losses brought stock valuations back to the year’s lows, with the S&...
Summary The core PCE price index jumped 5.1% in September, compared to a year ago, the fourth-highest reading in this cycle, behind January, February, and March. In terms of the Fed’s 2% inflation target as measured by core PCE, inflation is worsening and now measures over ...
Summary The composite consumer sentiment increased to 59.9 in October, up from 58.6 in September. The current economic conditions index rose to 65.6 versus 59.7 in September. The one-year inflation expectations rose in October, rising to 5%. The jump follows a string of declin...
Summary The Hang Seng index plummeted to the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. While the Hang Seng plummeted, U.S. equities rallied and we wound up +1.5% on the day. While everyone is glum about digital advertising, sometimes it makes sense to take a step...