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Summary With wage growth still strong and unemployment low, the labour market is still historically tight. For now. This will continue to pressure policy makers to remain hawkish and likely lead to a policy error, not for the first time. Looking forward, the leading indicators of un...
Summary The evidence indicates that the Fed’s rate hikes are having the desired effects. Subsequent reports indicate that retail sales fell to 1.1% annualized growth in December, driven by declines in car sales and sales of other goods; and this trend appears to have continued in...
Summary Consumer spending slowed sharply through the fourth quarter and we will need to see a rapid turnaround to prevent a contraction in the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the Fed's favoured measure of inflation is already undershooting the Fed's forecasts from last month, add...
Summary Real GDP rose 2.9% in Q4 2022, exceeding estimates ranging from 2.6% to 2.7%. This puts the first estimate of overall US economic growth in 2022 at 2.1%. Inventories and trade added to overall GDP growth by 2%. By Peter C. Earle Real GDP rose 2.9 percent in...
Summary The one truism which holds is that share prices and investor behavior do repeat even though the context is unique. The one element we can count on is that high pessimism is reflected in stock prices and other indicators with which investors can use to gauge market lows. One ...
Summary Conventional wisdom these days is that in order for the Fed to bring inflation down, they are going to have to kneecap the economy. Looking back at last year as a whole, real GDP shrank at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first half of the year, and grew at a 3.1% annualized rate i...
Summary GDP, adjusted for inflation and expressed in 2012 dollars, rose by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9% in Q4 from Q3. A big negative was residential fixed investment, which continued to plunge. Investment in fixed equipment also fell. Corporate America went on an all-o...
Summary Hayden Capital Management is an investment advisory firm focused exclusively on providing sound advice to clients and being an excellent investor on their behalf. Our clients include individuals, families, trust funds, pension plans, and non-profit organizations. Hayden Capital ...
Summary There has been heavy demand for transportation infrastructure during COVID which has held up post-COVID. Equipment needs replacing and upgrading with the lull in production during COVID. Industries have capacity limitations likely to stretch delivery for several years holdin...
Summary We expect the first half of 2023 to be choppy as markets process inflation data. Later in the year, central banks should moderate interest-rate hikes, inducing a sustainable risk-asset rally. We expect macro factors to remain in focus, with investors closely watching inflation a...