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Summary Our performance in 2022 was negatively affected by the fact that we purposely own very few resource companies. We believe that over the long term, smaller companies grow faster than mature multinationals and companies tend to operate better in stable environments than in highly ...
Summary Markets think the war against inflation has been won—and the Fed seems to believe it too—but has it? The press conference following the Fed’s January 31-February 1 policy meeting seems to have turned back the clock to at least pre-Jackson Hole, if not all th...
Summary The Russian retail economy has still not recovered from three generations of command and control. Data driven decisions are reactive rather than proactive - it is the very opposite of command and control. The last two years have been unprecedented in the post-war era in rega...
Summary Without any major shifts in bullish or bearish sentiment, bears continue to outnumber bulls as has been the case for a record 44 weeks in a row. The bull-bear spread has been showing single-digit readings for three weeks in a row. The only other time during the streak of negativ...
Summary Global manufacturing output fell for a sixth successive month in January, but the rate of decline showed welcome signs of moderating for a second successive month. The global manufacturing downturn showed signs of easing at the start of 2023, according to the latest PMI surveys ...
Summary The 2021-2022 episode turned out to be very different from the economic turmoil that bedeviled the U.S. economy from the 1960s into the early 1980s. Changes in relative prices can be either the result of changes in the average price level, or the cause of such changes. The o...
Summary The announcements of global layoffs by tech and social media companies and by startups make all the news. But these are announcements, not actual layoffs, and they’re global, with only part of them in the US. In total, employers reported that 4.09 million people quit thei...
Summary A big contributing factor to the surge in inflation was the spike in consumer spending. Healthy GDP growth, generationally low unemployment, and relatively stable earnings all point to a stable economy. While the future always remains unclear, nobody knows for certain whethe...
Summary As economies both in the United States and globally weaken with tighter monetary policies, corporate earnings are coming under greater pressure. Without exception, in the 24 months prior to a recession, large caps outperformed small caps. Higher-quality investments did not m...
Summary The Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, but markets are increasingly of the view that the Fed will reverse course and rates will end the year where they started. The Fed continues to fret about inflation, arguing that a tight jobs market leaves open the risk that p...