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Summary As expected, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%–4.75%. Chairman Powell focused on the Committee’s commitment to getting inflation down to its 2% target and pushed back on any questions about when a pause might be ...
Summary The latest equity-market bounce may feel like sweet relief after a rough 2022 - but beware the underlying fundamentals. Over the course of last year, investors were reminded of the rule of gravity. In this environment, we think it is more imperative than ever to keep a close...
Summary The composite US PMI from S&P Global, which monitors the output of the combined manufacturing and services sectors of the economy, has now been deep in contraction territory for some time. The weakness in the PMI encourages some further investigation into the buoyant picture...
Summary As we head into the end of January, technical conditions in major stock indexes are showing a lot of strength. We think a bear market that could easily trim 50% from indexes is in the cards, but timing is everything. We find price action-driven measures more reliable than su...
Summary Fair to say the stock market loved Powell’s apparently dovish tone during this week’s FOMC presser. Regardless of the underlying dynamics, the trend of markets is clearly positive for now. From a positioning perspective, despite much of this rally being fueled ...
Summary US recession fears linger on as softening activity spreads throughout the economy. There are also tentative signs that the labour market is cooling with increasing layoff announcements and slowing wage growth. Inflation pressures are subsiding and offer hope that the Fed wil...
Summary The most recent NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) is sending a strong signal of an economic recession. In 2019, the NFIB survey, combined with an inverted yield curve, suggested an impending recession. In 2020, those signals became a reality. As in 2019...
Summary Traders will pay close attention to initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan sentiment report. We learned a lot this past week about the position the euro area economy is in, the ECB's perception of it, and the market’s trust in the central bank. The stan...
Summary Market and policy trends continue to support fixed income assets. As widely expected, US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its latest meeting on Feb. 1. It appears that the Fed is not going to be so dogmatic as to force the economy into a major rece...
Summary Our performance in 2022 was negatively affected by the fact that we purposely own very few resource companies. We believe that over the long term, smaller companies grow faster than mature multinationals and companies tend to operate better in stable environments than in highly ...