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Summary The U.S. is now in the midst of producing record amounts of natural gas, which will help prices firm up. The milder winter kept prices low, but as the U.S. and Europe are hit by more Arctic air fronts in late winter, natural gas prices could start rising. As seasonal demand rise...
Summary Inflation is in fact receding, for the same basket of reasons it went up - not math, but markets. Specifically, the market of money (interest rates), the market of goods (supply chains), and the market of labor (employment). Plus, an unexpected chaser: the disruptive potential o...
Summary Ahead of January’s CPI report on Tuesday, consumer expectations towards inflation are generally stable and trending lower. On a one-year basis, inflation expectations dropped ever so marginally falling from 4.99% down to 4.95%. Three-year inflation expectations droppe...
Summary This can be a challenging market for investors to navigate, especially since many are worried about a possible recession. Since pullbacks occur more periodically than investors would prefer, learning to invest through challenging periods is an important part of any investor ...
Summary The Bank of Japan looks set to change its ultra-loose policy as inflation takes root. We see spillover risks to global yields, risk appetite and Japanese stocks. Global stocks fell last week and U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve as markets partly priced out Federal Rese...
Summary The CPI number, which will be announced this week, will affect all of the markets and is going to significantly move both the bond and equity markets. What is interesting to note is the difference between the annual rate and the latest quarterly rates. It seems as if the Fed is ...
Summary Two of the metrics used by the FOMC are the inflation rate as determined by the personal consumption expenditure deflator (PCE) and the unemployment rate (UR). Examining the trajectory of the Phillips curve, which maps the relationship between these two measures, has demonstrate...
Summary Looking at the current US stock market, the determination of the next important market call is not known. Believers think the Fed can change inflation by controlling the interest rates. On the other side, there are pragmatists who see a much more complex world where stock and ot...
Summary The jobs report certainly seemed good, but everyone who’s been doing this a while knows that January is one of the months that often gets revised a lot. Markets have pushed out the recession start date quite a bit over the last two weeks. Eurodollar and SOFR futures - sho...
Summary The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$39B in January. While that may not seem like much, it looks worse when compared to the average January. January saw the largest monthly revenue from Net Income Taxes since April of last year. This helped offset the MoM fall in corporate ...