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Summary AIER Leading Indicators rose to 58 in January 2023 from 21 in December 2022, an increase to just over the neutral level of 50. January 2023 nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000, with most gains in hospitality, leisure, healthcare, professional and business services. Li...
Summary S&P Global's PMI surveys showed the US manufacturing sector remaining in steep decline in February. With concerns over supply scarcities easing and lower production volumes necessitating fewer inputs, the amount of goods bought by factories fell for a seventh successive mont...
Summary Risk assets have performed admirably since October 2022. Since October, the Bank of Japan has been intervening in financial markets to support the yen and JGBs. $545 billion of Fed balance sheet reduction has been compensated by reductions of the Treasury General Account. ...
Summary Fourth-quarter results showed consumers balked at higher prices. Together, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft command roughly three-quarters of the cloud market and we find the soft results for all three to be a potential canary in the coal mine for the economy. We expect the foc...
Summary With the Federal Reserve approaching the tail end of an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle, investors have been bracing for a hard landing. The stock market has stabilized and risen since last October (S&P +13.7%) but has also hit a temporary air pocket last month (-2.6%)...
Summary The good news is that rising inflation does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market. The S&P 500 is currently valued at nearly 19x 2023 earnings. Stocks can go higher but in near-term, particularly when it comes to lower quality, volatile names. By Ru...
Summary Looking at a 150-year history of the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of the S&P 500 index suggests that the stock market is very overvalued. However, this analysis ignores that earnings today are not the same as earnings from 150 years ago. Adjusting for t...
Summary Adjusted for inflation, December 2022's estimated median household income still represents a new record peak for this demographic characteristic. At $34,987, January 2023's nominal median household income represents a new record high for this measure. This month's significan...
Summary Some well-known seasonality exists. The winter months vs. the summer months. S&P 500 has moved smoothly moved for four months (Oct - Jan). The seasonality was distorted by the external factors. 4.5-month Uptrend is in danger. Introduction Any season...
Summary To identify what stocks to short, we focused on five factors: value, quality, momentum, low-volatility, and growth. Tech and health care dominated the expensive and high-volatility portfolios over the 17 years under review. The challenge of short selling may lie in the asymm...