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Summary The US has a very busy week ahead. The two main events are Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress and the nonfarm payroll report. Christine Lagarde’s appearance in the middle of next week will be highly anticipated following the February inflation dat...
Summary We've seen one heck of a rally since the market reached an intermediate-term bottom in mid October. Incidentally, a textbook 20% bear market rally took the S&P 500 from 3,500 to 4,200 in about three months. However, I'm highly skeptical that the worst is behind us. U...
Summary The long-term outlook for stocks remains questionable, as most of my leading indicators of risk assets suggest sub-par performance over the next year or so. Importantly, the attractive yields on offer afford investors the ability to be paid to wait. Shorter-term however, the...
Summary US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. Job postings on Indeed.com, a jobs platform, suggest that the recent strength in the labor market is reversing and that rise in job openings will continue to reverse. The u...
Summary Supply chain pressures have eased and will continue to do so. Worldwide bottlenecks also have improved, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Supply chain problems were fairly widespread, though not universal. ...
Summary Debunking stock market myths. Out of stocks and into bonds: What the crowd is currently doing. What's next? Falling inflation, seasonality, global growth, and more. One of my favorite pastimes, when I have a little free time, is reading books and watching movies ab...
Summary The consistency of declines throughout February and to start the month of March has sent sentiment decisively lower. The latest data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed 23.4% of respondents reported as bullish. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment has...
Summary Turning on the news will swiftly tell you what is going wrong in the economy. Looking deeper at the underlying mechanism reveals opportunity. Supply sensitive areas are well positioned. Expenses are up across the board in 2023 and it is taking a big bite out of mar...
Summary Initial jobless claims continue to impress, with this week’s reading being the seventh week in a row of sub-200K prints. While the seasonally adjusted number is low, before taking that into account, claims have actually yet to drop below 200K. As for continuing claims...
Summary AIER Leading Indicators rose to 58 in January 2023 from 21 in December 2022, an increase to just over the neutral level of 50. January 2023 nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000, with most gains in hospitality, leisure, healthcare, professional and business services. Li...