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2023-03-10 12:54:49 ET Summary Rates have been a volatile ride recently. The jobs report was stronger than expected but was overshadowed by Silicon Valley Bank worries. The odds of a 50 bps rate hike have dropped, but are still on the table. The job report for Februa...
2023-03-10 11:05:00 ET Summary Another strong jobs figure for February would on its own have boosted market expectations for a 50bp rate hike on 22 March, but market angst is on the rise. Monetary policy operates with long lags, and higher borrowing costs and reduced access to cre...
2023-03-10 10:52:00 ET Summary The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -543 points or 1.66% on Thursday and S&P 500 Index's decline was slightly larger, down -1.85%. With the Fed pushing up interest rates at the fastest pace on record, bond portfolios have lost sizable value, es...
2023-03-10 09:55:25 ET Summary Relief in hourly earnings and hours worked help lift stock market futures in the February employment report. The primary focus of markets appears to still be developments around SVB Financial and possible banking turmoil. A 25bps March rate hike ...
2023-03-10 09:45:39 ET Summary The economy added another 311,000 jobs in February, but downward revisions lowered the net by 34,000. Wage growth fell short of expectations and the length of the workweek shortened, which are more important datapoints. We continue to see the bes...
2023-03-10 07:47:00 ET Summary Aggressive Fed tightening over the past year or so has devastated the value of bond portfolios because interest rates have risen by more and faster than during any prior bond bear market. The bond market is signaling that the outlook for the economy ...
2023-03-10 02:52:00 ET Summary Inflation is not moving down as much as people are anticipating. Labor is showing signs of resilience and strength. The leading indicators are telling us that although things are looking good now, that may not hold up as we get to the back half o...
2023-03-10 01:35:00 ET Summary The January Trade Deficit saw a slight increase compared to December, coming in at -$68.3B vs -$67.2B in the prior month. After peaking at -$106B in March of last year, the Trade Deficit has returned to a more stable range between -$60B and -$80B. ...
2023-03-10 00:30:00 ET Summary For the American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly survey, 24.8% of respondents reporting as bullish compared to 23.4% the previous week. Along with a modest bounce in bullishness, bearish sentiment has taken a modest decline falling...
2023-03-09 23:59:44 ET Summary Chairman Powell: Be careful what you wish for because you might wind up getting it. Updated budget and economic projections. China, Amazon, and more. This week I watched the classic film “Barbarians at the Gate” for the first ...