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2023-03-14 06:55:00 ET Summary SVB reverberations continue. In the US, the FRA/OIS spread is at a tipping point and needs to calm to help generate wider calm. US financial conditions have tightened considerably as a consequence of all of this. This does a job for the Fed, but ...
2023-03-14 04:53:00 ET Summary Last Friday, the Labor Department revised both their December and January payroll reports by a total of 34,000 jobs, from 260,000 down to 239,000 in December, and from 517,000 down to 504,000 in January. So far, the Fed has been remarkably quiet abou...
2023-03-14 02:45:00 ET Summary We went from a complete re-pricing of further Fed rate hikes to a setting where safe-haven buying due to concerns surrounding the banking sector took center stage in Treasuries. Obviously, the headlines, and attendant money and bond market reactions,...
2023-03-14 00:51:00 ET Summary The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$262B in February. February is typically the biggest deficit month of the year, averaging a deficit of $208B per year for the decade before Covid. Looking at the TTM, the deficit represented 25% of the tot...
2023-03-14 00:42:02 ET Summary What happens when accelerating inflation meets fears of systemic banking risk? There isn't a lot of precedent. In 2008, summer fears over inflation rapidly gave way to banking system fears and rapid deflation after the sudden failure of Lehman Brothe...
2023-03-13 20:55:00 ET Summary The Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures over the weekend are the second and third largest US bank failures in history. From last week’s 80% probability of a 50 bps hike on March 22, markets are now pricing a 44% probability of a pa...
2023-03-13 15:35:00 ET Summary One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. The banking bust we’re seeing now was sown during COVID. The COVID boom was the inevitable blow off top of the prior 10-year bull ma...
2023-03-13 12:40:06 ET Summary Silicon Valley Bank failed late last week as it wasn't able to accommodate customer withdrawal requests. There is now a lot of concern and fear-mongering that this event will lead to a systemic banking crisis. We don't think that happens because ...
2023-03-13 11:20:00 ET Summary Stocks are starting to reflect the economic damage from higher rates - and we see more hikes due to sticky inflation. But expected earnings still look rosy to us. U.S. stocks fell over 4% last week and erased most of their gains for the year, partly ...
2023-03-13 11:00:00 ET Summary Many have gotten quite bearish when following the news. Our analysis of the market over the last week did not take news into account, as we outlined the movements well before it happened. I am still looking for a bottoming structure, which can st...