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2023-03-16 00:30:00 ET Summary The New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing report indicated a significant deterioration in the region’s manufacturing sector. New Orders and Shipments both saw double-digit declines into bottom decile readings. Inventory expectations s...
2023-03-15 22:40:27 ET Summary A surprise lower in the February PPI and room for inflation to trend lower going forward is a favorable development. The banking industry turmoil has opened the door for the Fed to pause at the next FOMC, taking a more cautious approach. Stocks c...
2023-03-15 22:32:00 ET Summary After the painful decline in stock prices last year, many investors have clearly come to the conclusion that this now represents another terrific buying opportunity. The forward price-to-earnings ratio now shows the S&P 500 trades at a multiple o...
2023-03-15 22:25:00 ET Summary The failure of Silicon Valley Bank, along with Silvergate Bank and the Signature Bank of New York, has created what is possibly an inflection point in the bond markets. The effect on the fixed-income markets has been nothing short of astonishing. ...
2023-03-15 17:52:51 ET Summary The latest CPI release contains conflicting data, which can be used to support a belief in either high inflation or low inflation. Inflation has not yet fully normalized, but it also hasn't been a large problem for months. Softer labor markets, a...
2023-03-15 14:23:23 ET Summary Treasuries rates are falling in a race to unwind short positions. The S&P 500 is overvalued and offers no earnings growth. The equity market may need to force the Fed pivot. The bull narrative is over, and now the market must convin...
2023-03-15 11:30:00 ET Summary All over the world, people are moving cash out of low-yielding bank accounts and into higher-yielding deposits. Shareholder equity and retained earnings (tier-one capital) are the primary funding source for banks. Losses in the sector manifest in...
2023-03-14 10:33:00 ET Summary With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks. While higher rates increase consumer borrowing costs, they also negatively impact bank capital. While the economy seems to be ...
2023-03-14 10:10:21 ET Summary The regional bank fiasco has tightened financial conditions overnight. That is doing the Fed's job for it, which means we may be close to the terminal Fed Funds rate. This will allow the Fed to pause while it evaluates the impact of the rate hike...
2023-03-14 06:55:00 ET Summary SVB reverberations continue. In the US, the FRA/OIS spread is at a tipping point and needs to calm to help generate wider calm. US financial conditions have tightened considerably as a consequence of all of this. This does a job for the Fed, but ...