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2023-03-19 07:46:00 ET Summary The annual change in real US GDP and the S&P 500 shows broadly the same trends over the last 20 years. To quantify the relationship between the US economy and the stock market, we calculated rolling 10-year correlations. Even if economies and...
2023-03-19 06:15:00 ET Summary The Fed should follow the ECB's approach and hike rates by 25 bps. The Fed has gone on and on about the importance of price stability. Now is the time for them to prove how important price stability is. This week, the Federal Reserve me...
2023-03-19 05:47:00 ET Summary As expected, the sudden failure of SVB rattled global capital markets. Over the past week, investors dramatically changed their expectations of future Fed actions. It remains to be seen how badly the overall economy will be damaged by recent even...
2023-03-19 05:41:00 ET Summary Idiosyncratic factors certainly played a role in SVB’s failure and the recent turmoil we’re seeing in US regional banks as well as overseas at Credit Suisse. CS is a much larger and more economically critical bank than SVB, with signifi...
2023-03-19 01:57:00 ET Summary Although headline inflation continues to fall and unemployment is near a 50-year low, the Federal Reserve still faces some tricky policy decisions over the next few months. The impression that the Fed is targeting supercore inflation was reinforced b...
2023-03-18 09:22:17 ET Summary The Fed, Treasury and FDIC Chairmen put out a joint statement that all depositors would be made whole at the failed Silicon Valley and Signature Banks. The Fed will make available additional funding for eligible depository institutions to assure abil...
2023-03-18 08:21:00 ET Summary Could the consensus view of a 'no recession' scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. What happened with SVB is a result of tighter monetary policy extracting liquidity from the banking system. While ...
2023-03-18 02:48:12 ET Summary Investors will need to tweak portfolios as the New Era investment theme unfolds. Unprecedented government spending followed by unprecedented rate increases have left the investment scene in turmoil. Unless there is a decided change in fiscal poli...
2023-03-18 02:25:00 ET Summary Fed expectations are all over the place with Nomura analysts calling for a rate cut, while most investors are between a hold or a final quarter-point rate rise. It goes without saying that the focus in Europe next week will be firmly on the banking s...
2023-03-18 00:30:00 ET Summary After disrupting the trend of lower readings last week, this week’s reading on initial jobless claims returned to improvements as the print totaled 192K. Before seasonal adjustment, claims are sitting at 217.4K. Not only were initial claim...