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2023-03-20 12:45:29 ET Summary It appears there's a short squeeze taking place in Treasury rates. Liquidity in the Treasury futures has evaporated, making the short squeeze even more painful. Once liquidity returns and short covering subsides, rates should rise sharply. ...
2023-03-20 11:15:00 ET Summary Now that their interest rate policy is starting to cause things to break, the Fed can continue to raise interest rates and watch the systemic risk to the system increase or cut interest rates and watch inflation explode. I expect them to raise rates ...
2023-03-20 11:00:00 ET Summary While I am not a perma-bear, I have certainly addressed my expectations for a long-term bear market to be seen. Financial markets are not linear, so you should never approach them with this type of perspective. One needs to understand long-term h...
2023-03-20 09:00:00 ET Summary The Fed's balance sheet will be getting much larger. Europe faces a serious inflation problem. Global markets did not "seize up" this week. It is commonly believed that the "Great Financial Crisis" could have been avoided had the Federa...
2023-03-20 06:30:39 ET Summary The vast majority of investors do not know or understand how serious the current banking crisis could become. The BTFP program implemented by the US Treasury and Fed is insufficient to address the nature and magnitude of the problems facing the US ba...
2023-03-20 06:30:00 ET Summary Why the 2 recent bank takeovers happened. Six actions to stop future takeovers from being needed. The current state of the banking industry and what happens next. Nine risks to look for in a bank investment assuming a likely recession. ...
2023-03-20 02:17:48 ET Summary The banking crisis has resulted in a new slate of recommendations to deploy spare capital into suffering bank stocks. Inflation and the debt ceiling still pose massive risks to the market over the next several months. We recommend for those looki...
2023-03-19 08:26:16 ET Summary The Fed stepped in to ease the liquidity and banking crisis. The bearish bias has flipped back to neutral and opportunities lie in both directions. What to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ahead. Key technical levels and probable outcomes. ...
2023-03-19 08:21:00 ET Summary The first thing we should emphasize is that the Silicon Valley Bank saga is not, as far as any of the evidence to date suggests, the tip of an iceberg of systemic risk throughout the banking system. Credit Suisse is plugged into the global financial ...
2023-03-19 07:46:00 ET Summary The annual change in real US GDP and the S&P 500 shows broadly the same trends over the last 20 years. To quantify the relationship between the US economy and the stock market, we calculated rolling 10-year correlations. Even if economies and...