What we’ve seen this year is an exceptionally high rate of earnings growth across markets, but that’s not going to persist. It’ll start to moderate as we move into the second half of this year and slow further as we get into next year. And companies are going to b...
After value stocks underperformed in the second quarter, some investors wonder whether the value recovery has run its course. We don't think so, as three big trends that fostered a historic run-up in growth stock multiples over several years have only just begun to unwind. Signs o...
Global PMI signalled regional divergence deepening. Delta variant driven divergence aggravates as price pressures ease. Divergence in growth performance carries key risks, including for emerging market assets. For further details see: Delta Variant Spread Poses Key Risks...
As we mark the halfway point of the year, the economy is in full recovery mode and asset prices are soaring. As we enter the second half of the year though, it is hard to ignore some contradictions. Economic growth in H1 is going to print a big number, and yet, the 10-year Treasury no...
What was behind the prolonged winning streak for growth that created today’s extreme valuation gap? Our research shows that only 10 percentage points of the return gap between value and growth stocks since 2015 were driven by the difference in earnings and dividends. Even b...
Until recently global growth stocks have had a good run relative to value stocks, outperforming by 7.6% on an annualized basis over the 10 years ending September 30, 2020. With market expectations of a reflating economy on the horizon, investors have flocked to sectors viewed as the l...
With the Nasdaq index more oversold than the S&P 500, I suspect we will see a rally shortly in these stocks, which we will use as a "selling" opportunity to reduce exposure. Both international and emerging markets are well ahead of any expected growth in the U.S. economy, so the r...
A hallmark of our approach is to identify growth prospects arising from structural change and disruption before it is fully priced by the market. Many of the trends that were supercharged during the pandemic had been solidly in place for years. To be sure, the market for growth st...
Global business cycles are closely interconnected. Global business cycles are closely synchronized. Global equity markets respond accordingly. For further details see: Investing In Foreign Markets Sounds Exciting - But Isn't Always