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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the global economy, in particular by fueling further spikes in energy and commodity prices. The new inflationary catalysts will have differing effects on monetary policy moves because regional economies are starting from different places...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created significant uncertainty for the cycle outlook. The global economy was on track for strongly above-trend growth in 2022. The war in Ukraine will likely have a negative impact on growth and cause higher inflation this year, with Europe tak...
It’s been another week of significant volatility in financial markets, one in which European indices edged closer to bear market territory, oil prices hit a 10-year high around $120, and safe-haven gold came close to $2,000. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the severe sancti...
The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February. The relative weakness of February's global output growth by historical standards contrasted with a more robust expansion of order books recorded during the month. The reduction i...
Financial markets are reacting as expected to the heightened uncertainty. In the first days of the invasion, global equities plunged while safe-haven assets rallied. In short, while we have anticipated a broader, cyclical turn against the dollar could be underway, this shift in favor ...
It’s been another week of significant volatility in financial markets and there’s little reason to expect next week will be any different. The tragic events in Ukraine will continue to have a big impact on the markets in the coming weeks as it becomes clear what Vladimir...
There’s been no shortage of volatility in the markets so far this year and it doesn’t look like that is going to change any time soon. The focus has shifted slightly in recent weeks from monetary policy to geopolitics as Russian troops have built up on the Ukrainian bord...
The labour market has tightened to its highest since comparable data were available over two decades ago. The slowing in the growth of demand for staff largely reflects the peaking in the pace of economic growth around the middle of last year. With pay growth lagging inflation, re...
With inflation running at multi-decade highs, major central banks get ready to tighten monetary policy. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Sonal Desai argues they are well behind the curve—and why she thinks markets still underestimate the long, volatile a...
The focus shifts in the week ahead away from central banks directly and toward the macro data at the start of the year. The US real sector data in the week ahead includes January retail sales and industrial production. Several other major countries report January inflation figures...