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Recessions have gone from being a potential consequence of high inflation and rapid monetary tightening to an increasingly likely scenario. A wrath of economic indicators are expected to confirm the trend of weakening business activity. The gas stand-off with Russia isn’t e...
The UK economy sustained a modest pace of expansion in June according to preliminary PMI survey data and also saw steady strong employment growth. Other forward-looking indicators also point to worsening growth in the coming months. June's survey data suggest that the economy is s...
Have market rates peaked? We are getting close, but are not seeing a conclusive message that the top is in just yet. Inconsistent curve dynamics and the sharpest sell-off in two decades mean the bond market isn’t the obvious place to look for signs of recession. Were this t...
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index's preliminary estimate for June plunged to a record low. The good news from all this bad news is that “contrarian theory” says that when sentiment reaches such historic lows, the only way it can go is up. T...
We see the Fed on a path to raise rates far enough this year to hurt growth. The U.S. activity restart from the pandemic could grind to a halt in coming quarters. The Fed lifted rates by 0.75% in a rush to normalize policy, its biggest hike since 1994. Other central banks joined, send...
This past week felt like a big moment for central banks, collectively, as well as financial markets more broadly. There are still those like the BoE that still believe that slow and steady will win the race, or the BoJ that doesn’t actually have an inflation problem, but rather...
As inflation readings around the world come in well above targets, many central banks have sped up their plans to tighten monetary policy after years of historically low interest rates and bond purchase programs. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) is notably absent from the list...
Brexit has been out of the news for some time... that is, until yesterday. Embattled U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced his intention to override the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, which sought to prevent a hard border being erected between the Republic of Ireland (part of ...
Over the past quarter-century, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have often stepped in and eased monetary policy when equity markets sold off. Now that inflation has risen to above 8% in both Europe and the U.S., lowering rates when the equit...
Before the supply-constrained economy that emerged after Covid, and the war in Ukraine, attempts of a sustained rise in global short-term interest rates had to contend with the fact that at least two major central banks, the ECB and the BOJ were stuck in the mud at the zero bound. Now...